How long will my bees' winter stores last?
Will the bees have enough honey until spring? Enter the stores in the hive and the day you weighed or counted them. The page draws the stores down week by week and shows the date they would run out, as a low, typical and high estimate. It also gives a date to weigh the hive by.
Month by month
Honey left on the first of each month, in lb. Brood rearing is set to ramp up on Feb 15, 2027.
| Date | Low use | Typical | High use |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | 80.0 | 80.0 | 80.0 |
| Nov 1, 2026 | 75.0 | 73.4 | 71.7 |
| Dec 1, 2026 | 68.0 | 63.9 | 59.9 |
| Jan 1, 2027 | 60.6 | 54.2 | 47.7 |
| Feb 1, 2027 | 53.3 | 44.4 | 35.5 |
| Mar 1, 2027 | 45.9 | 33.4 | 19.0 |
| Apr 1, 2027 | 36.7 | 18.7 | none left |
| May 1, 2027 | 27.9 | 4.6 | none left |
| Jun 1, 2027 | 18.7 | none left | none left |
| Jul 1, 2027 | 9.8 | none left | none left |
| Aug 1, 2027 | 0.7 | none left | none left |
How the estimate works
A colony that has no brood does not forage in winter and lives off its stores. The Apiarist, after Tom Seeley's work, puts that weight loss at perhaps 1 kg per week in what it calls maintenance mode. That is 2.2 lb, and it is the typical rate here before brood rearing starts. The same article says the rate rises once brood rearing begins in earnest, but gives no number.
A second Apiarist article on weight in spring says Seeley's unmanaged colonies in Connecticut lost at least 1–1½ lb a week early in the year. That is a floor, and it is smaller than the winter figure, so it does not give a ramp-up rate either.
The rest is my own estimate. Please read it that way.
| Band | Before brood ramp (lb a week) | After ramp (lb a week) | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low use | 1.7 | 2.1 | My estimate: ×0.75 before and ×1.25 more after the ramp |
| Typical | 2.2 | 3.3 | 1 kg a week (Apiarist) and my estimate of ×1.5 after the ramp |
| High use | 2.8 | 5.5 | My estimate: ×1.25 before and ×2 more after the ramp |
- The ramp-up dates (mid-January, mid-February, mid-March) are guesses. Brood rearing depends on your climate and the colony, so pick the one closest to what you see locally.
- The ramp multipliers (×1.25, ×1.5 and ×2) are estimates too. The sources say consumption rises and do not say by how much.
- The check-by margin (weigh 28 days before the earliest run-out) is my choice. No source gives one.
- Weekly use also swings with cold snaps, colony size and how much of the honey the bees can reach. A cluster can starve with honey elsewhere in the box.
- The result is a range for planning. A weight taken a few weeks from now beats any forecast, which is why the page asks you to weigh and run it again.
What to do with the date
The Apiarist weighs and hefts colonies every 2–3 weeks in winter, and adds fondant in 1–5 kg blocks when a hive feels light, sized to last until the next visit. The check-by date is a reminder to look before the earliest run-out.
If the numbers say honey will run short, closing the gap is a feeding question. The candy board calculator scales a sugar and water mix to your boards, and how much sugar to feed for winter turns a honey gap into pounds of sugar. Liquid syrup stops being practical once it is cold, see when to stop feeding in fall.